The Influence of Economic Growth and Inflation on oil and gas Imports with the Exchange Rate as a Moderating Variable in Indonesia During the 2020–2024 Period
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This study aims to analyze the influence of economic growth and inflation on oil and gas imports, with the Rupiah-to-US Dollar exchange rate serving as a moderating variable in Indonesia during the period from January 2020 to December 2024. The study is motivated by Indonesia's high dependence on oil and gas imports amidst fluctuations in economic growth, inflation, and exchange rates—factors that potentially affect the volume and value of these imports. A quantitative approach with a causal research design was employed. The study utilizes secondary data in the form of a monthly time series covering January 2020 to December 2024, comprising 60 observations. The independent variables consist of economic growth and inflation; oil and gas imports serve as the dependent variable, while the Rupiah-to-US Dollar exchange rate acts as the moderating variable. Data analysis was conducted using the Moderated Regression Analysis (MRA) method. The results indicate that economic growth has a significant influence on oil and gas imports in Indonesia. This suggests that increased economic activity raises energy demand, thereby driving up oil and gas imports. Conversely, inflation was found to have no significant effect on oil and gas imports during the study period. The Rupiah-to-US Dollar exchange rate was shown to significantly influence oil and gas imports, demonstrating that exchange rate fluctuations affect import values by altering international trade transaction costs. However, the moderation analysis revealed that the exchange rate does not moderate the relationship between economic growth and oil and gas imports, nor the relationship between inflation and oil and gas imports.
How to Cite This Article
Melinda Yuwanti, Suharto 2, Dewi Rejeki (2026). The Influence of Economic Growth and Inflation on oil and gas Imports with the Exchange Rate as a Moderating Variable in Indonesia During the 2020–2024 Period . International Journal of Management and Organizational Research (IJMOR), 5(5), 72-81.